The soft market just officially died

The Load Letter

What the market is telling you to say

Week of June 22–June 27, 2026

The soft market is dead, and the data finally killed it. The Logistics Managers' Index printed Transportation Prices at 96.0 in May, the highest reading for any metric in the history of that index, and it's not demand driving it. It's capacity bleeding out. If you're still covering lanes off rate agreements you signed in a soft market, you're leaving money on every load you touch.

Transportation Pricing Index Hits All-Time High

The May LMI clocked Transportation Prices at 96.0, the highest any metric in that index has ever recorded, and it confirmed what brokers felt all week. This is a capacity-constrained market, not a demand-driven one. Driver pools are shrinking, Texas just revoked over 6,400 non-domiciled CDLs, and ITS Logistics is warning that shippers who budgeted flat for 2026 are about to hit a wall on driver exits, fuel, and lean inventories all at once.

Say this

Call your flat-budget accounts now, before the reckoning lands. Lead with this: "The LMI just printed the highest transportation pricing reading in the index's history, and I want to walk you through what that does to your lanes in the back half." Then make it about their lean inventory. When they're running thin on stock, they lose the ability to wait out a tight market and have to move freight at whatever it costs. Position yourself as the broker who saw it coming and built them a plan, not the one who shows up in July with a rate increase and no warning.

Reefer Baton Passes Florida To Georgia

Central and South Florida filed their last produce report of the season, and Georgia opened in the same breath at higher rates. The seasonal handoff happens every year, but the rate step-up this time is the story, and World Cup host city reefer rates have now broken away from the national trend entirely as food and beverage freight pours into stadium markets.

Say this

Get on the phone with your produce and food shippers running anything near Georgia or a host city. Tell them straight: "Florida just closed out, Georgia opened higher, and your reefer costs are going to run hotter than your models predict for the next several weeks." If they ship into a World Cup market, that premium compounds, and the brokers getting burned right now are the ones still quoting host-city lanes like it's a normal June. Lock your Georgia carrier commitments before rates climb again, then sell that secured capacity as reliability your shipper can't get from the low-cost broker scrambling for trucks.

Flatbed Runs Hot On Manufacturing And Reshoring

Flatbed held at $2.94 all week as DAT reported peak season came early and Texas carriers are getting paid like it, with the post-SCOTUS tariff reshuffle pulling steel, building materials, and machinery forward. S&P Global says manufacturing is growing at its fastest rate since 2021, and reshoring announcements like Harley-Davidson moving engine production back to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin keep stacking up.

Say this

If you're not in the industrial Midwest, Southeast, or Gulf flatbed corridors, that's your prospecting list this week. Open with: "Manufacturing is expanding at the fastest pace since 2021 and flatbed capacity in Texas is getting scarce and expensive at the same time. How are you covering your steel and building material lanes into July?" Manufacturing freight is sticky, contractual, and rewards the broker who shows up early. Do not nickel-and-dime your best flatbed carriers on a load this week to save thirty bucks, because in July when capacity tightens further, they'll remember who squeezed them.

This week's numbers

DRY VAN SPOT

$2.38/mi

REEFER SPOT

$2.68/mi

FLATBED SPOT

$2.94/mi

DIESEL

$3.64/gal

Source: DAT and EIA · Week of June 23, 2026

This week's cold email line

The LMI just posted the highest transportation pricing reading in the index's history, and your flat-budgeted lanes are the ones most exposed when capacity tightens this summer.

Use this on mid-size shippers who set 2026 budgets flat, especially in manufacturing, food, and high-value verticals. It lands now because the record print gives you hard data cover for a conversation they've been putting off, and the early peak season means they're days away from feeling it.

Knowing what to say is half of it. Writing the whole sequence is the other half. If you want these turned into a real outreach campaign in your own voice, that is the thing I build.

See how it works →

This week's sources

TFS, WEX roll out equipment financing program as trucking industry rebounds · FreightWaves

Oil Prices Dip as Iran Talks Continue · Transport Topics

Perspective: ATD Targets Trio of Issues for Fly-In · Transport Topics

Built to bend: How AI-first supply chains adapt when disruption hits · Supply Chain Dive

Aeva 4D LiDAR selected for Bendix Class 8 safety systems · FreightWaves

Borderlands Mexico: Echo bets on Mexico growth with domestic transportation offering · FreightWaves

Orderful's $35M Series C targets the service model that has defined EDI for decades · FreightWaves

Oil Prices Continue to Fall on Hopes for Iran Deal · Transport Topics

Is physical AI right for your DC? · DC Velocity

Cargo thieves are following the AI boom · FreightWaves