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The Load Letter

What the market is telling you to say

Week of July 06–July 11, 2026

 

Dry van spot topped contract rates this week for the first time since 2022, and it's not because freight demand surged. FTR's Trucking Conditions Index hit a record high, Class 8 orders posted their biggest year-over-year gain in seven months, and DAT confirmed it all comes down to trucks leaving the market faster than freight is growing. That means your contract book just became a mixed bag, a liability on some lanes and a goldmine on others, and the desks that figure out which is which first are the ones who win this quarter.

01

Capacity Tightened On Trucks Leaving, Not Demand

DAT's Truckload Volume Index showed dry van spot topping contract rates for the first time since 2022, and every data point behind it points to a supply-side story, not a demand one. FTR's Trucking Conditions Index jumped to 20.4 in May from 11.6 in April, the best reading on record, while Class 8 orders climbed for a seventh straight month. Flatbed and ag-adjacent freight are still soft underneath, so this tightening is real but uneven, hitting hardest on the lanes where carriers already thinned out.

 

Say this

This is the week to go back to shippers who think demand is booming and correct the record before they overpay or underbid. Tell them straight: rates are up because capacity left, not because their freight got hot, and that's exactly why now is the time to lock a rate before the next truck leaves the market too. For your own contract book, pull the lanes where you're underpriced relative to spot and go renegotiate before the shipper's next RFP does it for you. And for your core carriers, this is not the moment to squeeze them on rate, because they have options now that they didn't have in the spring.

 

02

Carrier Vetting Is Now A Legal Document

The Montgomery broker liability case got sent back to Illinois district court, keeping the negligent-selection question alive for the rest of the year, and FreightWaves flagged that the same Supreme Court logic stripping brokers of preemption defense is now reaching truck leasing companies too. At the same time, eight people got indicted in a ten million dollar cargo theft ring built on carrier impersonation, and Indiana State Police recovered twelve stolen loads worth over eleven million dollars since April. Vetting isn't a compliance checkbox anymore, it's the thing standing between you and a lawsuit or a stolen load.

 

Say this

Use this to close shippers who've been burned, or who are scared of being burned. Tell them you verify MC numbers, insurance, and physical carrier identity on every single load, not just the ones that feel risky, and that your file on every carrier you've ever booked is documentation ready if it ever needs to be. Shippers are hearing about theft rings and liability rulings in their own trade press right now, so lead with this line: while everyone else races to cover freight, you're still checking who's actually driving it. That's a differentiator you can say out loud on a first call, and it costs you nothing but discipline.

 

03

Ports Are Front-Loading Ahead Of July 24th

Transpacific ocean rates are up a hundred and twenty percent since mid-May and East Coast lanes are up eighty-five percent, as importers rush containers in ahead of the Section 122 tariff expiration on July 24th. The National Retail Federation is projecting an all-time record month for U.S. port volume, which means a wave of drayage and inland freight is about to hit Long Beach, Savannah, Houston, and the New York-New Jersey complex over the next two to three weeks, right as Savannah opens its new Brampton Road Connector on July 16th.

 

Say this

If you've got any shipper importing through those ports, call them this week, not after the surge lands. Open with this: your ocean rate just doubled and your inventory is going to hit the dock earlier than you planned, is your drayage and inland capacity actually locked for it. That question gets you in the door because most shippers are watching the ocean rate and haven't thought past the ocean leg yet. Book the surge now, but tell them straight this is a pull-forward, so don't let them plan their Q3 budget assuming this volume holds past early August.

 

This week's numbers

Dry Van

$2.49/mi

Reefer

$3.10/mi

Flatbed

$2.69/mi

Diesel

$4.58/gal

Source: DAT and EIA  ·  Week of July 8, 2026

 
 

This week's cold email line

Your ocean rate just doubled, your inventory is landing weeks early, and July 24th is coming whether your drayage is booked or not.

This lands with any importer running Long Beach, Savannah, Houston, or the New York-New Jersey complex right now, because the Section 122 tariff deadline has them front-loading containers and most haven't thought past the ocean leg yet.

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This week's sources

Montgomery lawsuit likely headed back to Illinois district court · FreightWaves

Mexico's new customs rules could expose bad supply-chain data, CrimsonLogic warns · FreightWaves

What the Best Fleets to Drive For Teach About Driver Retention · Trucking Info

Descartes adds last-mile tech in latest deal · FreightWaves

Lovesac taps contract freight to navigate higher fuel costs · Supply Chain Dive

La-Z-Boy advances cost-cutting distribution revamp · Supply Chain Dive

Kenvue surpasses 2025 plastic reduction target, falls short on recyclability · Supply Chain Dive

Service sector expanded at slower pace in June · Transport Topics

AscendTMS expands fraud-fighting toolkit with SearchCarriers integration · FreightWaves

Eight charged in alleged $10 million international cargo theft conspiracy · FreightWaves

Toyota to shift some Tacoma output to Texas from Mexico · Transport Topics

Delta pilot reports firework hit plane above Chicago · Transport Topics

That is the read for this week. Hit reply if any of these lanes are yours and you want to talk one through.

Andrew

The Load Letter

 

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